Timing with dynasty trades is always crucial. Identifying which players look poised for better production on the horizon, or which might be statistical regression candidates moving forward.
A few of the players mentioned in today’s update fall into the former column. Another is a vastly underrated Chicago Cubs outfielder who has a chance to jump into the top 100 in these rankings if everything breaks correctly.
Either way, he’s probably someone who you’ll want to have on your dynasty roster.
Who is this outfielder, and the other players of note?
Join me in just a moment after the rankings (and trade values!) and we’ll get into all of it.
If you have any questions about specific trade offers for your team or are curious about an offer you were thinking of sending out, becoming a paid subscriber grants you daily access to my fantasy help chat where I’ll be answering all of your fantasy baseball questions every weekday, whether it’s offseason, the regular season or the fantasy playoffs. The main goal of this Substack? To help you win your fantasy leagues.
Ben Rosener's Fantasy Baseball Help Substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Will Smith (#46, 66 trade value).
As you can tell, I’m probably higher on Will Smith than most. That’s not to say that others are considerably down on the 29-year-old. He’s entrenched as the starting catcher in baseball’s best lineup – with a contract through 2033, per Spotrac – and has been anywhere from 11% to 30% above league average from a wRC+ in his career.
But it’s not just the Dodgers deep lineup – which got even better with the addition of Michael Conforto – or Smith’s excellent track record – what with a career .350 on-base percentage and .214 ISO.
It’s that Smith looks primed for a bounce-back season in 2025.
Last season the veteran hit .248 with a .327 on-base percentage, 20 home runs, a stolen base, a career-low 111 wRC+, as well as 77 runs scored and 75 RBI.
Elsewhere, his .334 xwOBA was the lowest it’s been in a full season in the Majors.
Still, there were some encouraging metrics hidden in his underlying data.
For one thing, Smith’s barrel rate reached double-digits again in 2024 after dipping to 6.7% in 2023.
Will Smith Barrel Rate by Season
2019: 10.7% barrel rate, 121 batted ball events.
2020: 12.9% barrel rate, 93 batted ball events.
2021: 10.8% barrel rate, 324 batted ball events.
2022: 10.3% barrel rate, 416 batted ball events.
2023: 6.7% barrel rate, 387 batted ball events.
2024: 10.8% barrel rate, 379 batted ball events.
Smith also saw his xwOBAcon climb a bit from .365 in 2023 to .375 last year.
When paired with Smith’s regularly excellent plate discipline metrics, notably a low whiff rate, his xwOBAcon (not to mention a .446 xSLG that ranked in the 73rd percentile) is particularly encouraging.
Encouraging in that the 29-year-old’s 2024 surface-level metrics might just be an outlier statistically.
Will Smith In His Last Four Full Seasons
2021: 21.2% whiff rate, .403 xwOBAcon, 20.2 K%, .860 OPS
2022: 19.3% whiff rate, .382 xwOBAcon, 16.6 K%, .807 OPS
2023: 19.5% whiff rate, .365 xwOBAcon, 16.1 K%, .797 OPS
2024: 20.9% whiff rate, .375 xwOBAcon, 19.3 K%, .760 OPS
A slight bump in strikeouts could have played somewhat of a factor where the surface-level production is concerned, but moving forward, Smith seems a good of a bet as any to see his surface-level metrics rebound to where they were prior to 2024, especially considering all the constant and quality contact he makes.
Sandy Alcantara (#70, 63 trade value).
Giving up players and prospects to trade for pitchers making their way back from Tommy John surgery isn’t an exact science for dynasty managers and carries with it plenty of risk.
But, there’s a case to be made for trading for Alcantara either now or in a few months once the season is underway.
Really, his (perceived) dynasty trade value couldn’t be lower at the moment, what with the returning from injury, a 4.03 FIP in 184.2 innings in his last full season in 2023 and a Marlins’ Major League roster that has been gutted by trades dating back to last summer. Translation (at least on that last bit) there might be too much in the way of run support.
Sticking with that last thread, while Miami’s lineup was actually fairly good in the second half last year (only 13 teams had a higher collective wRC+), that production isn’t a surefire thing to carry over into the 2025 season.
Miami’s second-half numbers included a 224 wRC+ in 45 plate appearances by Josh Bell before he was traded. They also included a 107 wRC+ in 45 plate appearances by Bryan De La Cruz before he was dealt. There’s also the fact that Griffin Conine logged a 114 wRC+ on a potentially unsustainable stat line that featured a 31.5% strikeout rate and a .373 BABIP in 89 plate appearances.
Then there’s Jake Burger, who had the highest wRC+ (143) of all qualified Marlins hitters in the second half. He also paced the team with 19 home runs during that span and overall hit .279 with a .339 on-base percentage in 277 second-half plate appearances.
Burger was traded to the Rangers last month.
Starting to sense a theme here, separate of Conine at least?
Miami’s lineup shouldn’t be terrible, not with Xavier Edwards, Jesus Sanchez and Connor Norby still around and Deyvison De Los Santos and Agustin Ramirez close to the Majors. But they also might struggle mightily to score runs at times.
That might make other fantasy managers even lower (relatively speaking) on Alcantara from a trade value standpoint.
Of course, they’re not going to trade him just to trade him but if there’s a chance to acquire Alcantara for anything less than you’d give up for a frontline fantasy starter, it might be worth considering if you have the depth to deal from.
If he’s healthy, Alcantara’s fantasy ceiling is that of a borderline top-10 starter long-term. That’s if he’s not traded by the Marlins as well.
If Miami does trade him, as it has with Bell, De La Cruz, Burger, A.J. Puk, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Luis Arraez, Jon Berti, Bryan Hoeing, Tanner Scott, Trevor Rogers, JT Chargois and Huascar Brazoban, it would only improve Alcantara’s ceiling, with the potential of better, more consistent run support.
Now might be the time to make a trade (in fantasy) before one happens in real life in the next six or so months.
Ian Happ (#127, 42 trade value).
Ian Happ was very good at hitting a baseball in 2024.
Not only did the outfielder log the second-best xwOBA (.345) and hard-hit rate (45.2%) of his career, but he also logged a .416 xwOBAcon and an 11.7% barrel rate on the season, both his best in a full season since 2019.
To put the xwOBAcon number (or his xwOBA purely on contact) in perspective, only 36 qualified hitters had a higher xwOBAcon last year. Among those who didn’t include Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, William Contreras, Manny Machado, Freddie Freeman and Christopher Morel.
Happ’s walk rate (it was 12.2%) also finished in the 94th percentile or better for the second straight year.
So all that is great.
Really great.
What’s even better about Happ’s fantasy ceiling, at the moment, however, is that he seems likely to hit near the top of the Cubs lineup once again.
After a certain blockbuster trade this winter, that’ll mean hitting near both Kyle Tucker and Seiya Suzuki
If there’s a discussion to be had for the league’s most impactful hitter, Tucker is in that conversation with Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, Yordan Alvarez and Bobby Witt Jr.
Tucker logged a .400 xwOBA, 44.9% hard-hit rate, 17.5% chase rate, 12.9% barrel rate and a .536 xSLG in 339 plate appearances last season.
As for Suzuki, let’s have some fun with 2024 blind resumes.
Player A: .344 xwOBA, .437 xwOBAcon, 10.2% barrel rate, 30.9% whiff rate,
Player B: .346 xwOBA, .437 xwOBAcon, 11.5% barrel rate, 24.5% whiff rate.
Player C: .357 xwOBA, .423 xwOBAcon, 10.6% barrel rate, 26.7% whiff rate.
Player D: .343 xwOBA, .414 xwOBAcon, 13.2% barrel rate, 24.7% whiff rate.
Player A is Julio Rodriguez.
Player B is Seiya Suzuki.
Players C and D are Bryce Harper and Pete Alonso, respectively.
Happ’s proximity to both Tucker and Suzuki in the Cubs’ lineup could do wonders for the veteran outfielder’s counting stats. Furthermore, if Tucker ends up re-signing in Chicago with the Cubs long-term, it could help vault Happ into the top 100 overall.
Ben Rosener's Fantasy Baseball Help Substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Things to keep in mind:
Beware the Open Roster Spot (Or lack thereof)
Oh and one more quick note, beware the open roster spot, or lack thereof rather, in trades.
While a two-for-one or even a three-for-one or four-for-two deal might line up from a trade value standpoint, the roster spots are worth considering. Essentially if you’re having to cut someone it turns into you giving up another player or players in addition to potentially the best player in the deal. It’s obviously a different story if you’re working with a flexible roster or open roster spots, but it adds another layer to deals that can potentially change the calculus of things considerably.
Last week’s rankings and analysis, including notes and analysis on why you need to trade for the extremely underrated Jordan Westburg in dynasty. Teoscar Hernandez’ long-term upside and why it might be time to worry about Adolis Garcia’s statistical production a bit.
Ben Rosener
·
Jan 8
Looking for Redraft Rankings? I’ve got you covered. Here’s the latest from last week:
50 Fantasy Relievers of Note
Updated each month, this column is structured much like the trade value chart and rankings column, only it focuses purely on relievers who could help you win your fantasy league, regardless of scoring format.
Looking for relievers for saves+holds leagues? This column has you covered. Wanting to punt on saves in the draft and acquire a bunch of save stashes? This is the column for you. Maybe you’re looking to keep your weekly ERA and WHIP down. It’s all here. And while the relievers list and analysis are a paid subscriber exclusive, there are some good bits of info in the intro in this column, including an in-depth look at why you should consider utilizing relievers more in general in fantasy.
Ben Rosener
·
Jan 1
An in-depth, comprehensive breakdown of, well… the draft strategy that will help you win your league in 2025. Very excited about sharing this one!
Ben Rosener
·
Jan 15
